The watching 'vBulletin's market share nosedive' thread.

Discussion in 'vBulletin' started by is_it_me, Jan 17, 2014.

  1. Within 6 months

    18.3%
  2. Within 1 year

    26.8%
  3. Within 18 months

    10.4%
  4. Within 2 years

    18.3%
  5. Within 30 months

    3.0%
  6. Within 3 years

    6.1%
  7. Longer than 3 years

    17.1%
  1. esquire

    esquire Habitué

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    This poll is about what software users are running. A more useful poll is market share of licenses sold per year. vBulletin forums will still be running even if Internet Brands shuts down vBulletin Solutions tomorrow.
     
  2. PacMan

    PacMan Tazmanian

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    2014 will be an interesting year for forum statistics. IPB 4 and XF 1.3 will be released and IB has a big range of offerings with VB4, VB5 and VBC.
     
  3. doubt

    doubt Tazmanian

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    Latest is VB5. Is it going to be installed for the customers?
     
  4. LeadCrow

    LeadCrow Apocalypse Admin

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    The wording suggests each branch's latest supported release. With vb3 EOLed, that may suggest vb4.2, latest vb5 version and any future versions produced (vb6, vb7...).

    Under the current service structure, if vBS produces a major new version every 3 years, this lease may be cheaper overall to run since it includes hosting. Best of all is how this would penalize late adopters the least (if say vb6 is released a month or 2 after they jumped on vb5. Instead of getting cheated, it's just business as usual for them until they upgrade their community to that version when they're ready).
     
  5. DirtRider

    DirtRider bah humbug

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    Well if you look at the normal order of things most people would only move to another software when it comes to upgrading. So with this said VB4 owners should only do this once they would have to move over to VB5 being as bad as it is.

    However this is not the trend by the looks of it the way things are going over at VB. I have been with VB4 since it was released so you would think that I should have a few more year use left before I need to switch. However with the latest move on VB's part with the issue of not fixing the multiple image of uploader and then seeing how one of their customer's had to do it for them changed it all. I am now in the process of testing my import on XF. A number of other VB4 owners are also doing the same as I believe.

    VB's attitude overall to their customers is changing the normal progression of things overall. So I would not be supprised if they crash a lot sooner than some expect. My thinking was if they able to just adopt the take it or leave it attitude over an issue like the multiuploader of images what will the next issue be that will have the same attitude ( I know they suggested a workaround for this but it did not cut it with me, sorry )

    So the idea get out now while I still have a working forum to convert :superman:
     
  6. is_it_me

    is_it_me or not?

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    Well, here we are one week on from the opening post, so let's take a look at the old scoreboard.....

    Commercial Forum Platforms - relative marketshare
    vBullentin – 68.0% (-0.3%)
    xenForo – 20.3% (+0.2%)
    Invision – 11.7% (+0.2%)

    Commercial Forum Software Migrations - detected migrations
    vB to xF – 73.5% xF to vB – 4.8% = xF gain of 68.7% (+0.4%)
    IPB to xF 9.6% xF to IPB 8.4% = xF gain of 1.2% (0.0%)
    VB to IPB 3.6% [none appear to have gone the other way) = IPB gain 3.6% (+1.1%)

    - the change since last week are in brackets.

    So, vB has lost another 0.3% share in a week, and if that trend continues at the same rate it will take about 60 weeks to drop to 50% share.

    I doubt anyone will be surprised by the last stat....

    Vb5 share of the overall vB market remains under 1%, at just 0.9%

    Thank again to digitalpoint’s cookie report for the stats.
     
  7. Deimos

    Deimos Devotee

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    0.9% for the flagship software, oh dear, lol.
     
  8. doubt

    doubt Tazmanian

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    Perhaps 99% of that 1% are test forums?
     
  9. is_it_me

    is_it_me or not?

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    I think champagne corks could be popping at vB today, as vB5 has finally reached the dizzy heights of 1% of total vB installs. ;)

    Although I doubt that has much to do with more vB5 installs, but to do with more vB3 & 4 sites converting to xF or IPB, i.e. total vB market share has dropped another 0.1% since I looked yesterday, so by default vB5 increases as a proportion of total vB installs.
     
  10. motowebmaster

    motowebmaster Participant

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    I saw the info about their "Cloud" offer last night and am thankful be off of vbulletin.

    However, IB has likely embraced the fact that vb5's 1% of the market share is realistic. It might even be considered "successful" in their business strategy. It may be they couldn't win in the former business model and are developing a new one.

    Nah ...
     
  11. LeadCrow

    LeadCrow Apocalypse Admin

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    Adoption of vb cloud is pretty much a trap. Note that while staff attempts reassuring prospective users that import/export are coming, they offer no guarantees that it will definitely in the near future.

    I'd recommend everyone steer away from it until an export capability exists. Last thing your community needs is for any way out of vb5/vbcloud blocked. Smart people don't let themselves get taken hostage.
     
  12. HallofFamer

    HallofFamer Habitué

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    I believe IB does not care about the market share as a whole, especially considering their price policy is once and done so old customers are irrelevant to its business. Its more important to look at the new licenses sold per week, month or even year.
     
  13. Alex.

    Alex. The Ancient Dragon

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    Yes, even with those suffering from hemophilia. Their bleeding stops when... well, you get the idea.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2014
  14. GTB

    GTB Tazmanian

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    Well, that's it. Sounds a little familiar things being said are coming like that. Bit curious why that wasn't in place already before offering the cloud service? The staff also don't sound too convincing, on whether IB will show ads on your forum or not at some point in the QA Joe created about vB Cloud. I would like to think they wouldn't, ever - seeing as it's not a free hosting service.

    But nothing is being set in stone, the QA leaves the door wide open on a few things "possibly changing". Which shouldn't be the case really, IB should be setting certain things in stone from the outset, like saying they'll never display ads on your paid forum cloud service. But no, as usual people are left guessing what they might do in the long-run, when it comes to them being able to monopolize your board for profit.

    Do they expect people to rent this cloud service, people who might hate ads displayed on their forum. Only one day to see IB put some up on it. Because it's a gamble if you do, or it seems that way reading the Cloud QA.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2014
  15. is_it_me

    is_it_me or not?

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    I think you are likely to be right, although this would be very short-sighted, but, of course, that is what we have come to expect from them.

    A crumbling market-share shows they are not maintaining their customer base, which in time should upgrade and therefore spend more money with them, in addition to any new sales. Also the larger market-share results in more sites running the software, which in effect is free marketing & PR that would help to drive sales.

    IIRC vB5 was released well over a year ago now, yet remains at just 1% of vB installs, or around 0.6% of total forum software installed market-share.

    vB used to power over 100,000 sites and had around 90% of the market, so let's be generous and say the total market is 150,000 sites.

    0.6% of 150,000 would mean about 900 sites running vB5 sites, no doubt a few more have purchased it but are not running it and others will buy it in order to get vB4.

    I would guess a lot of licences were sold in the first few months and have dropped off since, their weekly average sales must be tiny now, I would be surprised if they are achieving a monthly average of 200 (2400 pa), which at the full price of $249 gives an income of under $50k pm - not a lot considering their staffing costs and other overheads.

    I think I may have been generous with those figures, my gut-feeling is that sales are likely to be lower, possibly even half of that.

    Whatever the actual figures are, this little 'back of a fag package' calculation seems to illustrates why they have let go a number of staff and not replaced others, and also the desperation behind launching vB Cloud.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2014
  16. doubt

    doubt Tazmanian

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    They would be more than happy with that, I believe.
    Invision can do it, we can do it!

    (Community in the Cloud: From $20)
     
  17. HallofFamer

    HallofFamer Habitué

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    Well IB has always been short-sighted, its not really surprising at all. They only care about short-term profit, future income means essentially nothing to this company.
     
  18. is_it_me

    is_it_me or not?

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    I doubt they will be.

    The gap between the launch of vB4 & vB5 was around 3 years, taking the existing vB4 market-share and dividing that by 3, would have resulted in around 17,000 average sales per year.

    That would be over 7 times my generous guessestimate of current sales.

    I suspect that would have been even higher, as some that purchased vB4 may never have used it and others have since converted to xF or IPB.
     
  19. LeadCrow

    LeadCrow Apocalypse Admin

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    Think forced affiliation, with IB sharing its (Skimlinks/Viglinks?) revenue. The hosted structure is perfect for that, and I highly doubt they will not force use of their affiliate addon, especially since they are already blocking addon installs and folks would be limited to whatever features they decide to make available.

    After all, if the only option is to not have ads and gain no money, you'd understand why people would go along, until revenue exceeds the cost of a selfhosted licence. Ergo, it would work against IB's longterm advantage to allow forums to escape by making usable backups available to webmasters (or at least ones not tampered with, like with all logs and searchengine data deleted).
     
  20. jadmperry

    jadmperry Fan

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    Makes me wonder what their business model is....the product does not seem targeted for established boards or boards that have an expectation of of being a "big board." Far as I can tell, this is for small boards or hobbyists. Can't see a ton of revenue from this service/product. If that is the case, seems like vB is looking to scrape the bottom of the barrel in terms of revenue (actually, if I were to give my real opinion, it is that some executives at IB/vB looked at declining revenue and thought of an idea that might give a momentary boost to revenue....I think this is supported by Joe Rosenblum peeking his head out of the "cloud" and making a statement in support of this product). Anyway, given the uncertainty about the market wanting to adopt this service/product and the limited attraction of this, it makes me think that vB is taking a further twirl around the toilet bowl.

    Let me be the first (okay, the four hundredth) to predict this signifies the death throes of vB. Hope Mr. Rosenblum enjoys the money I spent on vB in its heyday as he drives the product into the ground. Would be awesome if vB could actually produce a product that is wanted by purchasers and that worked as promised. Wait, no, that would be just a baseline customer expectation. Not holding my breath till the day vB delivers something that customers actually want.

    (Where is the BB Code for a choking emoticon?).
     
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