The watching 'vBulletin's market share nosedive' thread.

is_it_me · Jan 17, 2014

I remember when I last looked at digitalpoint’s cookie report on commercial forum software, vB was on just over 70% market share, and I thought at the time, I wonder how long it will take to drop below that 70% mark.

Now, I see they are down to 68.3%, but I can’t remember how many weeks ago I last looked, I also recall that xF was just under 19% and has now gone just over 20%, at 20.1%, and Invision on 11.5%.

So, I thought it would be interesting/funny/embarrassing, depending on your experience and/or employment/contract status with vB, to have a thread to monitor how the market changes over the coming months and years.

So, as of today (17th Jan. 2014), we have:

Commercial Forum Platforms - relative marketshare
vBullentin – 68.3%
xenForo – 20.1%
Invision – 11.5%

Commercial Forum Software Migrations - detected migrations
vB to xF – 73.4% xF to vB – 5.1% = xF gain of 68.3%
IPB to xF 10.1% xF to IPB 8.9% = xF gain of 1.2%
VB to IPB 2.5% [none appear to have gone the other way) = IPB gain 2.5%

Vb5 share of the overall vB market remains under 1%, at just 0.9%

Now, who wants to make predications on when will vB drop below 50% market share? Vote now!

Any thought on if the departure from vB will continue at the current rate, or do you think it will start snowballing, as more and more admins watch their competitors migrate platforms?

doubt · Jan 17, 2014

is_it_me said:
Any thought on if the departure from vB will continue at the current rate, or do you think it will start snowballing, as more and more admins watch their competitors migrate platforms?

It all depends on the development of XF and IPB.
Owners are comfortable with VB 3-4.
IPB is a different world.
XF feels familiar but it's very young, needs to be improved urgently to be competitive.

IMO the departure will slow down.

Iconic · Jan 17, 2014

I think it will be just like adding chrome to the browsers market, slow but it in time it will be the biggest. I think that vb is Internet Explorer, will die out slowly because of vb5.

LeadCrow · Jan 17, 2014

Given a lot of forums simply dont upgrade any often, I'd say 3 years as vb4 or whatever current version is available would be the natural upgrade path.

To more accurately evaluate the differential delta, your best best would be to probe the upgrade practices of huge webhosts like Godaddy and Hostgator and the minimum requirements of vb versions (once they ditch pre-php5.4 versions, folks will have to either upgrade, switch script or migrate to another webhost). It's not however clear how many vb forums are hosted on those, but given the significant marketshare of vb3, it'll likely be swept away the charts first.

A shame that scraper doesnt track upgrades across the same script, couldve helped form a more accurate picture of the trend to expect from vb3 users when cornered. Should be fair to assume that by then, at least a third of them would move to XF rather than upgrade or switch host.

VICE · Jan 17, 2014

Where is the option for vB skyrocketing above 50%?

It's a soaring Hindenburg, not sinking Titanic.

is_it_me · Jan 17, 2014

VICE said:
Where is the option for vB skyrocketing above 50%?

It's a soaring Hindenburg, not sinking Titanic.

In respect of both skyrocketing & Hindenburg - LOL

PS: Has Mark B. stole your login?

VICE · Jan 17, 2014

He will return, Mark my words.

SneakyDave · Jan 17, 2014

It'll probably be a long time before it drops below 50%.

But VB management doesn't even realize that market share is the only advantage it has over other platforms.

It isn't about market share for them, it's all about the $$$ today.

However long it takes, we'll still be around bitching about VB, or whatever it morphs into by then

DemOnstar · Jan 17, 2014

I reckon with all the bad press currently and the new releases /updates/development of competing products will take hardened users a bit of a while to truly feel the effect..
If vBulletin continue at the same pace as they have demonstrated in the last 2 years then my estimation is 2 years to hit 50%.

Another worry is that the company themselves either

A. don't pay attention to statistics.
B. they ignore them.
C. they are incapable of turning it around.
D. product/ company suicide.

I think it is a natural reaction for any company to try to rectify issues that are bringing them down. Unless of course that is the ultimate goal..
Allowing the competitor to gain and not showing any form of retaliation is something that I haven't figured out..
The more I think about it, the more option D applies.

Scott Greczkowski · Jan 17, 2014

Here is the thing...

I want to move off of vBulletin 4.2.2 not because I want to but because I need to support my members and the current internet technology they are using. I can't keep disabling features of my site because there is a security hole and no one wants to or knows how to fix them. I have selected vBulletin as my vendor so I didn't have to worry about this stuff and they were good, but now they have failed and to me they don't seem to care.

But I am scared to make the move to another Platform, while other platforms are GOOD they are not where I need them to be. I have a few million posts, 200,000 members etc... I got to be able to offer what I offer now to them if I move to another platform.

The other issue is my competition all moved off of vBulletin and I am the only left running vBulletin. Some have moved to XENFORO other IPB. Both of them after they moved lost a large amount of their traffic and members and they have never recovered. In order for my site to survive I need to keep my members and traffic, to see a 40 - 50% decline like my competition could be a fatal thing for my site.

I think this is being called "being stuck between a rock and a hard place."

The Sandman · Jan 17, 2014

doubt said:
IMO the departure will slow down.

Yeah... all bleeding stops eventually!

Joeychgo · Jan 17, 2014

DemOnstar said:
I think it is a natural reaction for any company to try to rectify issues that are bringing them down. Unless of course that is the ultimate goal...

This is the part that completely baffles me. From where I sit, all indications are that vb5 is a failure, and people have or will either move to another platform or not upgrade to 5 at least for now.

At what point is someone over there smart enough to realize that they are throwing good money after bad and that a drastic change in direction is needed? All I see is them digging the hole they are already in deeper and deeper, and I just don't get it.

AdamD · Jan 17, 2014

Given how many sites are supposedly run on Vbulletin, that 1%-2% drop must be a LOT of sites.
If VB once powered over 100k of sites, as the Vbulletin main site claims, that's 1000+ sites which have moved away, no small figure.

we_are_borg · Jan 17, 2014

Scott Greczkowski said:
Here is the thing...

I want to move off of vBulletin 4.2.2 not because I want to but because I need to support my members and the current internet technology they are using. I can't keep disabling features of my site because there is a security hole and no one wants to or knows how to fix them. I have selected vBulletin as my vendor so I didn't have to worry about this stuff and they were good, but now they have failed and to me they don't seem to care.

But I am scared to make the move to another Platform, while other platforms are GOOD they are not where I need them to be. I have a few million posts, 200,000 members etc... I got to be able to offer what I offer now to them if I move to another platform.

The other issue is my competition all moved off of vBulletin and I am the only left running vBulletin. Some have moved to XENFORO other IPB. Both of them after they moved lost a large amount of their traffic and members and they have never recovered. In order for my site to survive I need to keep my members and traffic, to see a 40 - 50% decline like my competition could be a fatal thing for my site.

I think this is being called "being stuck between a rock and a hard place."

It depends on your users that you have. Is it a community that is involved with the site and help out or are there only doing there own stuff and not help with the site. If you have people that are involved make a new section and talk about what is going on with vBulletin and what your problems are ask also if they have issues with the software. After some time say that you are looking into to migrate to another software company like Xenforo, IPB or even WBB ask what they want and expect of the site. When done correctly you should be fine but it will be a long time before you can migrate. If you have a large community take your time to test and give people access to the testing so that you see what they think. All this think at least 6 months before you can start the migration.

marcgo15 · Jan 17, 2014

I'm going to go with 2 years with the current state of the software.

Alpha1 · Jan 17, 2014

At the current rate of loosing 1.2% marketshare per month to XenForo, it will be 20 months before XenForo and vb have equal marketshare and less than 5 years before there is no more vbulletin marketshare.

Scott Greczkowski said:
I think this is being called "being stuck between a rock and a hard place."

That sucks. I know all about it. But at some point the hammer will hit vbulletin. Maybe the next issue relates to essential vbulletin functionality. If you look at the degradation of the product its not hard to imagine that at some point a serious exploit or technology deprecation will break your website.

The Sandman · Jan 17, 2014

Alfa1 said:
At the current rate of loosing 1.2% marketshare per month to XenForo, it will be 20 months before XenForo and vb have equal marketshare and less than 5 years before there is no more vbulletin marketshare.

It's not a linear function - either the loss rate will decrease (as the unsatisfied people leave and/or the software improves) or we will reach a tipping point where the bottom drops out all of a sudden and the loss rate increases significantly.

HallofFamer · Jan 17, 2014

Depending on the definition of market share. If you are talking about all available forums that include forums running with old VB3 or even VB2 softwares, VB's market share will likely to stay above 50% for longer than 5 years. If you are just considering new forums being built each year/month, the 50% market share may have already been nonexistent.

jadmperry · Jan 17, 2014

The Sandman said:
It's not a linear function - either the loss rate will decrease (as the unsatisfied people leave and/or the software improves) or we will reach a tipping point where the bottom drops out all of a sudden and the loss rate increases significantly.

HallofFamer said:
Depending on the definition of market share. If you are talking about all available forums that include forums running with old VB3 or even VB2 softwares, VB's market share will likely to stay above 50% for longer than 5 years. If you are just considering new forums being built each year/month, the 50% market share may have already been nonexistent.

All things being equal, I would agree- except they aren't. I think that you will see an increase in speed with which vB3 and 4 have problems with browsers, php versions, and other issues that would impact "usability." If that is the case, I think you will see a quicker migration to other platforms. (With the exception being those folks who have custom coded to the point where they don't have issues with modern requirements).

But, as for your last sentence, I think that is right.

rudedog · Jan 17, 2014

Where's the "Not quick enough" option?

The watching 'vBulletin's market share nosedive' thread.

When will vB drop below 50% market share?

Within 6 months

Within 1 year

Within 18 months

Within 2 years

Within 30 months

Within 3 years

Longer than 3 years

or not?

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