The watching 'vBulletin's market share nosedive' thread.

[s.molinari]

That could be explained this way:
- forums are closing down entirely. Affects more the oldest vB installs, whose upgrade path is blocked, unless they migrate.
- new forums are opening, but more are considering IPB and XF than vB now.

The DP report could do well to filter stats by age, so it makes a difference between new forum (under a year's existence, or specific dates like vb5's gold release) and old ones. This particular stat's numbers may be the most revealing of current sale trends.

In the end, it really doesn't matter, does it? Market share is market share. What would be interesting to know is if the market is shrinking overall.

Scott

 

[esquire]

In the end, it really doesn't matter, does it? Market share is market share. What would be interesting to know is if the market is shrinking overall.

No - in the end, what matters is revenue producing market share. IB went for the quick cash grab and made it the "pay me all the maintenance fees up front" model. They figured they could keep introducing "new" products. Now they shot themselves fatally by having virtually no recurring revenues from current or premium products. This is why they have been shedding staff like a Siberian Husky.

As of right now, their revenues are generated only from vBulletin 5 product sales and the dwindling vBulletin 4/5 support plans and a handful of "premium" products such as forumrunner and the mobile suite. vBulletin Solutions, Inc. will probably be dead before the market share drops completely out of the picture. If IPB 4 turns out to be OK, then the mass exodus of remaining sites will begin again as vB 3-4 are not and will not be fully compliant with current versions of PHP.

 

[s.molinari]

You forgot the summer in Florida. Shedding staff like a Siberian Husky during the summer in Florida. LOL!

But yeah, one of the things I fought against was the crappy license change. I also pushed to go back to a recurring payment model with vB5 and it fell on deaf ears (no answer to my email). But, I guess I blew it beforehand, when I said to Bob and Joe that the vB4 release was a total disaster. The answer I got from that email was the last I ever got from either of those two.....

Scott

 

[LeadCrow]

What made you believe anything you tell them would've carried for them more weight than average customer Joe Schmoe and Eddie McYesman? I thought you shared a healthy professional relationship with Jelsoft's agents rather than the company itself, and not IB or vBS in particular.

 

[esquire]

You forgot the summer in Florida. Shedding staff like a Siberian Husky during the summer in Florida. LOL!

Touche - very well done, Scott, LOL!

But yeah, one of the things I fought against was the crappy license change. I also pushed to go back to a recurring payment model with vB5 and it fell on deaf ears (no answer to my email). But, I guess I blew it beforehand, when I said to Bob and Joe that the vB4 release was a total disaster. The answer I got from that email was the last I ever got from either of those two.....

Your days were numbered, regardless of what you said. Better to know where you stand earlier and move on with your life.

 

[GhostHunterJim]

vBulletin should go Open Source.

I was a long time vBulletin enthusiast but eventually got tied of the hefty price tag. I've since switched gears and jumped on the Joomla bandwagon. Granted, it's not a "forum" package but if you want to have a nice site with some forum capability. Joomla/Kunena is the way to go. Joomla 3 is now has the bootstrap framework integrated and there are a lot of third party extensions (both commercial and non-commercial) for Joomla for half the cost of vb or a lot less. Joomla has awesome support too. Templates are a lot easier to update as well. Stop hitting your head against the wall with huge price tags. Give Joomla a try. You might be happy like I am.

 

[LeadCrow]

Vb needs a contributor community, but that'll never happen as long as IB keeps any form of centralized control over anything code-related, like control of the repository. Look how 'well' that worked for the opensource Project Tools.

 

[Kevin]

I feel like I am watching

just let me know when it is time for that

so I can make a run for it

 

[edshuck]

Idid not know that there was an emoticon for Jerry - Jerry bit that is a good thing. Fiunny.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

Joe,

If you are NOT getting paid for being vBulletin support then you really need to get your head checked. Besides your snarky answers you give here every now and then, I have always found you one of the most helpful member of the support staff.

I have also liked that when something broke you didn't take the official vBulletin stance of saying it's broken and its not going to be fixed... Instead you told folks yup its broken, but unofficially if you want to fix it I made this patch which you can download at vb.org.

I like that you went out on your own and tried finding where the problem was and then found a solution to it and made a solution for everyone to us. I don't see why vBulletin does not see what you are doing for the community and your love and drive for the product... as that is what the product needs!

If you stopped arguing with folks just because you like to argue I would love to see you as the head of vBulletin support or even project leader, where you could do as you have done and fix vBulletin 4 one problem at a time.

Having a vendor like vBulletin is frustrating especially with official statements such as yup it's broke and no we are not going to fix it come out. And then here comes Joe with a fix that they won't officially embrace. It aggravates the hell out of me.

Sure you can be the vBulletin Baghdad Bob at times, but if you cleaned up your act you could be in charge of the vBulletin project. You have done great things for vBulletin and you have continued doing great things for vBulletin. When is someone at vBulletin or Internet brands going to pull their heard out of their ass long enough to see whats going on and what can help the company?

As I said if your not getting paid you should have your head checked.

 

[VICE]

Joe is an excellent support.

I wish he stop filling the shoes for Mark and Paul.

 

[Boothby]

A trend function from Excel gives me the following result:

Month|Percent
Aug 13|75.34
Sep 13|73.71
Okt 13|72.22
Nov 13|71.19
Dez 13|70.08
Jan 14|68.86
Feb 14|67.51
Mrz 14|66.36
Apr 14|65.20
Mai 14|64.05
Jun 14|62.93
Jul 14|61.83
Aug 14|60.74
Sep 14|59.68
Okt 14|58.63
Nov 14|57.60
Dez 14|56.59
Jan 15|55.60
Feb 15|54.62
Mrz 15|53.67
Apr 15|52.73
Mai 15|51.80
Jun 15|50.89
Jul 15|50.00
Aug 15|49.12

The values from Aug 13 to Feb 14 are from DP's cookie search.

 

[LeadCrow]

I wouldnt trust that estimation too much. As Sandman mentioned earlier, a large exodus or upgrade to newer versions will have to happen when webhosts phase out configurations vb3 in particular runs on.

 

[Alpha1]

Yes, there are several variables that can speed up the decay of vbulletin: attractive releases from competition, exploits, old technology becoming EOL or incompatible with hosting and off course there is the social element of vbulletin/IB and its staff behaving off putting.

 

[LeadCrow]

By the time adoption of vb3 and to an extent vb4 crashes (more or less 2 years), IB should have had enough time to design and push a properly designed script, backed by a solid, stable pool of talent.

The most concerning point IMO is the visibly complete lack of discussion -internal and public- about the next major releases (not meaning 5.1, but what comes after, "vb6"), and very few resources and manpower invested by IB into even current projects. Staff from top to bottom surely is variably aware structural design issues hold down vb5. It's time to go back to the basics and reduce maintainance burdens by adopting viable modern-day practices rather than keep the existing offerings held together with duct tape and prayer.

 

[DirtRider]

Well if they have not got the message by now that VB 5 sucks I cannot see them getting very soon either

 

[AdamD]

IB probably does know VB sucks, otherwise they would've be firing developers or not replacing them when they leave.

The staff level is down to a bare minimum, it seems, at least on the developer front, which to me suggests the product is in a life support phase.

 

[DemOnstar]

At this point, although I have been away for a while. Not truly away but have said nothing.

The reason I have said nothing is the same reason that my last response highlighted..

It does seem that most people here, I mean most people here that have been with vB for a while are again repeating the same things that they have been repeating for years.

In essence, vB are also repeating the same things i.e. a total lack in all things important.

People and users here and probably in other places are still complaining about stuff that will never be fixed. They are complaining and knowing it will never be fixed but still continue to complain about stuff that will never be fixed.

The point is - as you already know - it will never be fixed! That is exactly what all th fuss is about.

My suggestion is to you that you move on with your lives and forget about vB...

I too have paid for for the license and the broken promises but I have stopped bothering.
It took just over a year before I got over it..

I am just sorry for those people that depend on vB for their livelihoods, their dependent need for this incomplete software. It's lack of support/commitment/upgrading etc, etc, etc...

Stop talking about it and move on!

Sounds a bit harsh I know but reality is often like that....

Dare I say you are wasting your time?

Go optimists, go for it...................

 

[DirtRider]

Well I have not bothered logging on much to the VB site just because it was a no point in asking them anything for some time now. As you say move on, I am busy doing that right. I also cannot understand those that seem to want to hang onto this sinking ship.

I must admit I was worried when I first realized that it was at the point of no return as I have a load of custom mods on my VB site. Fortunately I have manage to get most of the important ones ported to XF. With these and other great mods available on XF my forum should be converted in a few weeks. My members will in fact get a better forum experience all round one it is done

 

[jadmperry]

I have fully abandoned the sinking ship that is vBulletin. But, because they changed the licensing model and felt it was cool to charge me for a renewal of vB3.x plus blogs two months before the vB4 pre-sale, I think it is on them to have my continued attention (not even touching on the failure to deliver what was promised, and abandoning development of vB4).

My motivation at this point is not much more than to tell my experience and to make sure that the marketing machine does not sucker other folks. But, at the same time, I feel a strong right/obligation to share my thoughts on a product that I am still a valid license holder of.

I will freely admit that there is a bit of me that wishes to hold vB to their word- sell me a crappy product but make the licence "lifetime" ? Okay, they got me on the delivery of a substandard product. But, I have them on the lifetime license. So, while part of me is actually motivated by my bad experiences, there is another motivation to try to push them to either deliver or to cause some drastic action. I really spent a lot of time posting on vBulletin.com to give my feedback. It was patently ignored. Cool, they want to run business as they have, sell me something that I think did not meet what they promised and hyped, and leave me feeling like I got a raw deal? Cool. But, I will be sure that I share my thoughts and experiences. They don't like it? They can either make it right or deal with having sold me something that I think is substandard.

It is not like this is a huge investment of my time to do so. I check in on various boards and post when I have downtime, when I am trying to take a break from my actual work, and, to be honest, I like sharing what I think. Those who don't want to read input from a forum that is dedicated to discussing issues about a topic maybe should not read it. I would say in response that "if the post or topic is something that you feel is a waste of time, then you have already wasted your time by reading."

Though, maybe vBulletin can pull out a complete 180 degree turn. Turn into a leader in producing quality forum software. Maybe they will get out of the "cloud," come back to Earth, and change things. I don't have high (or really any) hopes this is the case. But, I will make my views known so that others who are investigating can see others opinions. I have been painted as "biased" by at least one vBulletin support person. I think I am just sharing my opinion. If vB, or anyone can show me a quality product at a fair price (or, baby steps, at least a quality product regardless of price), I am all ears.

Another thought, though- this thread has a ton of views, replies, and participation. Maybe that means something.